10-Year Housing Supply Forecast 2023
10-Year Housing Supply Forecast 2023
Our Hong Kong Foundation (OHKF) released its latest exclusive public and private housing supply forecast, which expects a significant improvement in supply for the next five years. Looking forward, the Government should seize the opportunity to release the untapped development potential of the Northern Metropolis to ensure achieving its ten-year target in the Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS). It is by doing so that a solid foundation can be laid to enhance Hong Kong’s living quality and gradually head toward a more livable city.
For public housing, in the premise of the timely delivery of Light Public Housing, the Composite Waiting Time is likely to be shortened and close to achieving the Government’s performance indicator. As the Government first announced last year the distribution of public housing sites estimated to be completed in the second five-year period, and given the measures set out in the Policy Address to reduce recurrent delays, total completions in the next 10 years could exceed the LTHS target. However, as 60% of the projected supply in the second five-year period will come from the Northern Metropolis, and half of them belong to scattered rezoning lands, possible extended time on land resumptions and clearance procedures will be expected.
For private housing, assuming the successful implementation of favourable policy measures such as streamlining development procedures, completions are expected to reach a relatively high level in the next five years. However, expected completions in the second five-year period significantly contrast the first five-year period figure with a nearly 30% drop. The sharp decline in spade-ready land supply for private housing in recent years has foreshadowed the slump in completion level five years from now. Nevertheless, in addition to known projects, many private development projects in the Northern Metropolis are undergoing planning applications. There is a high degree of overlap between their geographical distribution and the potential developable areas identified by OHKF. To unleash the development potential in these areas, the Government must tackle the challenges in traffic, sewage, conservation, and not-in-my-backyard facilities.
For market dynamics, the Government’s relaxation on the mortgage rules and increased supply of subsidised housing considerably reduced the attractiveness of smaller units, while it was observed that the sales ratio of mid-size units has overtaken smaller units. The earlier trend of first-time buyers scrambling for units with a smaller lump sum, irrespective of size, to get a foot on a rug of the property ladder is retreating. It is anticipated that the proportion of smaller units in new private housing completions is going to reach its peak this year, and completions of nano-flats are expected to rise but will plateau from 2024 to 2025.
Our Hong Kong Foundation (OHKF) released its latest exclusive public and private housing supply forecast, which expects a significant improvement in supply for the next five years. Looking forward, the Government should seize the opportunity to release the untapped development potential of the Northern Metropolis to ensure achieving its ten-year target in the Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS). It is by doing so that a solid foundation can be laid to enhance Hong Kong’s living quality and gradually head toward a more livable city.
For public housing, in the premise of the timely delivery of Light Public Housing, the Composite Waiting Time is likely to be shortened and close to achieving the Government’s performance indicator. As the Government first announced last year the distribution of public housing sites estimated to be completed in the second five-year period, and given the measures set out in the Policy Address to reduce recurrent delays, total completions in the next 10 years could exceed the LTHS target. However, as 60% of the projected supply in the second five-year period will come from the Northern Metropolis, and half of them belong to scattered rezoning lands, possible extended time on land resumptions and clearance procedures will be expected.
For private housing, assuming the successful implementation of favourable policy measures such as streamlining development procedures, completions are expected to reach a relatively high level in the next five years. However, expected completions in the second five-year period significantly contrast the first five-year period figure with a nearly 30% drop. The sharp decline in spade-ready land supply for private housing in recent years has foreshadowed the slump in completion level five years from now. Nevertheless, in addition to known projects, many private development projects in the Northern Metropolis are undergoing planning applications. There is a high degree of overlap between their geographical distribution and the potential developable areas identified by OHKF. To unleash the development potential in these areas, the Government must tackle the challenges in traffic, sewage, conservation, and not-in-my-backyard facilities.
For market dynamics, the Government’s relaxation on the mortgage rules and increased supply of subsidised housing considerably reduced the attractiveness of smaller units, while it was observed that the sales ratio of mid-size units has overtaken smaller units. The earlier trend of first-time buyers scrambling for units with a smaller lump sum, irrespective of size, to get a foot on a rug of the property ladder is retreating. It is anticipated that the proportion of smaller units in new private housing completions is going to reach its peak this year, and completions of nano-flats are expected to rise but will plateau from 2024 to 2025.
