Annual 10-Year Housing Supply Forecast
Annual 10-Year Housing Supply Forecast
Our Hong Kong Foundation is launching its latest exclusive annual forecast on housing supply. We intend to help members of the public stay informed of the latest land and housing supply trends, and assist the Government in identifying critical policy gaps for speedy resolution.
This report intends to help members of the public stay informed of the latest land and housing supply trends, and assist the Government in identifying critical policy gaps for speedy resolution. The forecast shows that short-term supply is still largely dependent on stopgap measures such as land rezoning, while long-term supply is full of uncertainties.
For private housing, mild improvements are observed in the short-term supply, but there is a chance of a supply chasm in the long-term before the "mainstay" of supply in the New Development Areas (NDAs) materialise in the 2030s. Therefore, the key to increasing supply is to expedite the NDAs and advance land delivery to avoid a supply chasm. At the same time, accelerating infrastructure projects in the NDAs will also help unlock the development potential of the private land bank and further increase private residential supply.
For public housing, short-term supply has witness snowballing deficit vis-à-vis Government targets, while uncertainties to fulfil the “back-loaded” supply pledge remains. The outlook is pessimistic due to the Government's poor track record, recurrent delays in completions, and a lack of transparency in project progress disclosure. Therefore, the key to meeting the target is to break the current vicious cycle of delays in public housing projects to ensure their timely delivery.
As currently known public housing project delays only form the "tip of the iceberg", we have conducted a site visit to uncover three lesser-known delay cases, and shed light on the problems that have yet to emerge.
Looking beyond supply numbers, unit sizes in upcoming private housing completions are still declining, while nano-flat completions will continue rising in the short term. Despite gradually plateauing in 2024 to 2025, it is too early to conclude that we have seen the back of nano-flats. Unit sizes in public housing are likewise declining, with nano-flats not only plaguing Green Form Subsidised Home Ownership Scheme (GSH) projects, but also making a debut in the Home Ownership Scheme (HOS) projects launched for sale in 2022. It remains to be seen whether the Government will consider increasing the size of new public housing units.
Our Hong Kong Foundation is launching its latest exclusive annual forecast on housing supply. We intend to help members of the public stay informed of the latest land and housing supply trends, and assist the Government in identifying critical policy gaps for speedy resolution.
This report intends to help members of the public stay informed of the latest land and housing supply trends, and assist the Government in identifying critical policy gaps for speedy resolution. The forecast shows that short-term supply is still largely dependent on stopgap measures such as land rezoning, while long-term supply is full of uncertainties.
For private housing, mild improvements are observed in the short-term supply, but there is a chance of a supply chasm in the long-term before the "mainstay" of supply in the New Development Areas (NDAs) materialise in the 2030s. Therefore, the key to increasing supply is to expedite the NDAs and advance land delivery to avoid a supply chasm. At the same time, accelerating infrastructure projects in the NDAs will also help unlock the development potential of the private land bank and further increase private residential supply.
For public housing, short-term supply has witness snowballing deficit vis-à-vis Government targets, while uncertainties to fulfil the “back-loaded” supply pledge remains. The outlook is pessimistic due to the Government's poor track record, recurrent delays in completions, and a lack of transparency in project progress disclosure. Therefore, the key to meeting the target is to break the current vicious cycle of delays in public housing projects to ensure their timely delivery.
As currently known public housing project delays only form the "tip of the iceberg", we have conducted a site visit to uncover three lesser-known delay cases, and shed light on the problems that have yet to emerge.
Looking beyond supply numbers, unit sizes in upcoming private housing completions are still declining, while nano-flat completions will continue rising in the short term. Despite gradually plateauing in 2024 to 2025, it is too early to conclude that we have seen the back of nano-flats. Unit sizes in public housing are likewise declining, with nano-flats not only plaguing Green Form Subsidised Home Ownership Scheme (GSH) projects, but also making a debut in the Home Ownership Scheme (HOS) projects launched for sale in 2022. It remains to be seen whether the Government will consider increasing the size of new public housing units.
