Our Hong Kong Foundation (OHKF) released its Land & Housing Advocacy Study ”Downward Spiral of Housing Demand Estimation" in response to the Government's updated Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS). We observe that the demand for housing in the LTHS has continually been underestimated, failing to take into account the pent-up demand accumulated over the past decade. The adjustment of the housing supply target's public-private ratio from 60:40 to 70:30 fails to increase the overall target, and merely "robs one's belly to cover one's back".

Regarding private housing, there is now a lower annual average supply target. We also find that the availability of spade ready land for private housing development has fallen behind for the first time in four years, meaning that future completions will see a sharp downturn.

Taking into account the completion forecasts for the next four years, the Government will fail to meet its first 10-year public housing supply target announced four years ago. Also, in the past year, the Government has only been able to source land for public housing by reallocating land from private housing. Complications with rezoning, increased plot ratios and more have contributed to more delays in the delivery of public housing.