Our Hong Kong Foundation - Hong Kong Housing Landscape Navigator 2026
Our Hong Kong Foundation - Hong Kong Housing Landscape Navigator 2026
Rising Prices and Volumes Signal Market Recovery
Tightening Market Balance Calls for Flexible Supply Calibration;
Public Housing Ageing is a Challenge on the Horizon
Three-Pronged Institutional Framework to Drive Redevelopment
(23 April 2026, Hong Kong) Our Hong Kong Foundation (OHKF) released its flagship annual research report, Hong Kong Housing Landscape Navigator 2026 (the report). The report identifies that Hong Kong’s housing market has reached a decisive turning point. Following a protracted correction, the private housing market is recovering, with a synchronised rebound in both prices and transaction volumes. Concurrently, public housing supply has entered a strategic harvest phase. Faced with the immense challenge posed by a rapidly ageing public housing stock, OHKF advocates that the Government seize this rare policy window and pivot its strategic focus from simply producing new units to systematically driving the redevelopment of ageing estates.
Private Housing Market Review: Prices and Volumes Rise as Inventories Recede and Developers Prioritise Profit
Analysing the latest market data, the report notes that the private residential market entered a “double-growth” recovery in 2025. Momentum was heavily concentrated in the entry-level segment, with Class A units (under 40 m², approximately 430 square feets) posting a 4.1% increase in price, and transactions for sub-HK$4 million homes surging 29.4% year-on-year. This underscores the efficacy of policy tailwinds, namely the raising of the stamp duty threshold adjustments and the full withdrawal of “spicy measures” in unlocking pent-up end-user demand and rekindling investment appetite.
With completions moderating and transaction activity rising, net absorption turned positive for the first time since 2021, and unsold stock fell by 18% from its peak. As inventory pressures eased, this catalysed developers to shift their strategy from aggressive, volume-driven price concessions towards profit-optimised pricing, signalling that the most acute phase of supply-side imbalances has now subsided. In the land market, intensified bidding for government sites, characterised by narrowing bid spreads and an average of eight to nine tenders per site, indicates a unified conviction that land values have established a floor, offering more solid underpinnings for the market outlook.
Private Market Outlook: Supply Approaches a Cyclical Trough and Market Balance Tightens Rapidly
Looking ahead, the report projects average annual private housing completions at 17,100 units for 2026–2030. However, the near-term supply pipeline is expected to hit a cyclical trough, with annual completions dipping to some 16,700 units in 2026 and further to some 15,400 units in 2027. Thereafter, given a gradual recovery in both superstructure commencements and “spade-ready” land supply, completions are poised to rebound steadily from 2028 to 2030. For the subsequent five-year period (2031–2035), depending on policy adjustments and market recalibrations, annual completions are forecast to range between 13,300 and 24,800 units.
On the demand side, Hong Kong’s population has staged a robust “V-shaped” rebound. While organic demographic drivers like births have softened, the substantial influx of overseas talent and students has injected fresh momentum into the market, propelling rents to record highs. Coupled with mortgage rates falling below the 3.5% cap, the market has pivoted towards homeownership as borrowing costs have notably fallen below rental yields.
Crucially, the “months of supply” metric, a key barometer of market equilibrium integrating demand and supply factors, has halved from a peak of 102 months in 2023 to 49 months in 2025, underscoring a rapidly tightening market balance. Depending on construction commencement levels, the ratio could range between 28 and 62 months by 2030. To prevent excessive volatility, OHKF recommends a proactive and flexible framework that monitors the “months of supply” ratio alongside price to assess structural market health. This enables the authorities to actively calibrate the pace of land disposal in response to evolving market dynamics, thereby guiding the market toward a sustainable equilibrium.
Public Housing Policy Spotlight: Public Housing Ageing Drives Up Maintenance Costs and Reallocating New Flats to Facilitate Redevelopment
The report highlights the steady progress made by the authorities in recent years in accelerating housing construction, shortening waiting times, and enhancing living quality. In terms of advancing public housing redevelopment, the number of units in currently planned or ongoing projects has expanded significantly to approximately 41,000, far exceeding the cumulative completion of 17,000 units over the past decade. However, the ageing of public rental housing (PRH) estates presents a substantial challenge. Over the next ten years, more than 230,000 units under the Housing Authority are expected to reach the 50-year mark, while average per-unit maintenance and improvement expenditures continue to rise. Proactive planning is therefore essential.
With traditional public housing completions projected to average 35,000 units annually over the next five years and 45,000 units over the next decade—both comfortably exceeding the Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS) target of 29,400 units—Hong Kong is presented with an unprecedented window to advance systematic estate redevelopment.
Therefore, OHKF puts forward three institutional shifts. First, earmark 10–15% of new completions annually as a ring-fenced reserve specifically for rehousing residents affected by redevelopment. Second, separately list a “redevelopment account” within the LTHS supply target, with annual disclosures on reserved capacity and a rolling five-year pipeline. Third, where appropriate, increase the proportion of subsidised sale flats (SSFs) within redeveloped estates, for instance, by setting a 60:40 ratio between PRH / Green Form Subsidised Home Ownership Scheme (GSH) and other SSFs. This cross‑subsidisation model can reduce net outlays by up to 78%. Taken together, this three-pronged approach can transform the challenge of an ageing PRH stock into a generational opportunity for redevelopment.
OHKF President Dr Jane Lee remarked: “Hong Kong’s housing development stands at a historic crossroads. For years, our focus was confined to “catching up” and “filling the gap”. As the private market stabilises and public housing supply gains momentum, our policy thinking must evolve accordingly. The future demands “precision management”—harnessing data-driven insights to calibrate the rhythm of land creation and guard against boom-and-bust cycles, while simultaneously seizing the strategic window afforded by improved supply to proactively redevelop our ageing estates. Hong Kong's housing policy must undergo a fundamental transformation, moving decisively towards a paradigm of cycle management, quality enhancement, and long-term resilience.”
OHKF Vice President and Executive Director of Public Policy Institute Mr Ryan Ip noted: “The private residential market has firmly entered a recovery phase, reflecting a dual structural shift: the release of pent-up end-user demand and a pronounced pivot in developer behaviour. Notably, developers have transitioned from passive inventory destocking to active, profit-led pricing—a clear signal of restored industry confidence. Yet, the market now faces the compounding pressures of a cyclical supply trough coinciding with strengthening demand drivers. The equilibrium is tightening rapidly. We recommend the authorities establish a forward-looking land supply framework, leveraging data to calibrate the pace of land sales flexibly between supply valleys and demand peaks, thereby safeguarding against sharp market fluctuations.”
OHKF Assistant Research Director and Head of Land and Housing Mr Jason Leung commented: “Public housing development in Hong Kong has made steady progress in recent years, providing greater capacity for efforts in “enhancing quality”. The upcoming supply peak over the next decade will, for the first time, provide Hong Kong with the substantial rehousing resources essential for driving systematic redevelopment. This is a necessary investment to elevate living standards, unlock development potential, and revitalise ageing communities. However, it must be emphasised that this process involves more than just demolition and replacement; it affects the community networks, neighbourly bonds, and life memories built by residents over decades. We must, therefore, place significant importance on the social impacts arising from the redevelopment process, ensuring that renewal plans remain people-centric and proceed in a stable, orderly manner.
Hong Kong Housing Landscape Navigator 2026:
Report Summary: https://bit.ly/4u4nYM0
PowerPoint Material: https://bit.ly/4tqN1Jn
Rising Prices and Volumes Signal Market Recovery
Tightening Market Balance Calls for Flexible Supply Calibration;
Public Housing Ageing is a Challenge on the Horizon
Three-Pronged Institutional Framework to Drive Redevelopment
(23 April 2026, Hong Kong) Our Hong Kong Foundation (OHKF) released its flagship annual research report, Hong Kong Housing Landscape Navigator 2026 (the report). The report identifies that Hong Kong’s housing market has reached a decisive turning point. Following a protracted correction, the private housing market is recovering, with a synchronised rebound in both prices and transaction volumes. Concurrently, public housing supply has entered a strategic harvest phase. Faced with the immense challenge posed by a rapidly ageing public housing stock, OHKF advocates that the Government seize this rare policy window and pivot its strategic focus from simply producing new units to systematically driving the redevelopment of ageing estates.
Private Housing Market Review: Prices and Volumes Rise as Inventories Recede and Developers Prioritise Profit
Analysing the latest market data, the report notes that the private residential market entered a “double-growth” recovery in 2025. Momentum was heavily concentrated in the entry-level segment, with Class A units (under 40 m², approximately 430 square feets) posting a 4.1% increase in price, and transactions for sub-HK$4 million homes surging 29.4% year-on-year. This underscores the efficacy of policy tailwinds, namely the raising of the stamp duty threshold adjustments and the full withdrawal of “spicy measures” in unlocking pent-up end-user demand and rekindling investment appetite.
With completions moderating and transaction activity rising, net absorption turned positive for the first time since 2021, and unsold stock fell by 18% from its peak. As inventory pressures eased, this catalysed developers to shift their strategy from aggressive, volume-driven price concessions towards profit-optimised pricing, signalling that the most acute phase of supply-side imbalances has now subsided. In the land market, intensified bidding for government sites, characterised by narrowing bid spreads and an average of eight to nine tenders per site, indicates a unified conviction that land values have established a floor, offering more solid underpinnings for the market outlook.
Private Market Outlook: Supply Approaches a Cyclical Trough and Market Balance Tightens Rapidly
Looking ahead, the report projects average annual private housing completions at 17,100 units for 2026–2030. However, the near-term supply pipeline is expected to hit a cyclical trough, with annual completions dipping to some 16,700 units in 2026 and further to some 15,400 units in 2027. Thereafter, given a gradual recovery in both superstructure commencements and “spade-ready” land supply, completions are poised to rebound steadily from 2028 to 2030. For the subsequent five-year period (2031–2035), depending on policy adjustments and market recalibrations, annual completions are forecast to range between 13,300 and 24,800 units.
On the demand side, Hong Kong’s population has staged a robust “V-shaped” rebound. While organic demographic drivers like births have softened, the substantial influx of overseas talent and students has injected fresh momentum into the market, propelling rents to record highs. Coupled with mortgage rates falling below the 3.5% cap, the market has pivoted towards homeownership as borrowing costs have notably fallen below rental yields.
Crucially, the “months of supply” metric, a key barometer of market equilibrium integrating demand and supply factors, has halved from a peak of 102 months in 2023 to 49 months in 2025, underscoring a rapidly tightening market balance. Depending on construction commencement levels, the ratio could range between 28 and 62 months by 2030. To prevent excessive volatility, OHKF recommends a proactive and flexible framework that monitors the “months of supply” ratio alongside price to assess structural market health. This enables the authorities to actively calibrate the pace of land disposal in response to evolving market dynamics, thereby guiding the market toward a sustainable equilibrium.
Public Housing Policy Spotlight: Public Housing Ageing Drives Up Maintenance Costs and Reallocating New Flats to Facilitate Redevelopment
The report highlights the steady progress made by the authorities in recent years in accelerating housing construction, shortening waiting times, and enhancing living quality. In terms of advancing public housing redevelopment, the number of units in currently planned or ongoing projects has expanded significantly to approximately 41,000, far exceeding the cumulative completion of 17,000 units over the past decade. However, the ageing of public rental housing (PRH) estates presents a substantial challenge. Over the next ten years, more than 230,000 units under the Housing Authority are expected to reach the 50-year mark, while average per-unit maintenance and improvement expenditures continue to rise. Proactive planning is therefore essential.
With traditional public housing completions projected to average 35,000 units annually over the next five years and 45,000 units over the next decade—both comfortably exceeding the Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS) target of 29,400 units—Hong Kong is presented with an unprecedented window to advance systematic estate redevelopment.
Therefore, OHKF puts forward three institutional shifts. First, earmark 10–15% of new completions annually as a ring-fenced reserve specifically for rehousing residents affected by redevelopment. Second, separately list a “redevelopment account” within the LTHS supply target, with annual disclosures on reserved capacity and a rolling five-year pipeline. Third, where appropriate, increase the proportion of subsidised sale flats (SSFs) within redeveloped estates, for instance, by setting a 60:40 ratio between PRH / Green Form Subsidised Home Ownership Scheme (GSH) and other SSFs. This cross‑subsidisation model can reduce net outlays by up to 78%. Taken together, this three-pronged approach can transform the challenge of an ageing PRH stock into a generational opportunity for redevelopment.
OHKF President Dr Jane Lee remarked: “Hong Kong’s housing development stands at a historic crossroads. For years, our focus was confined to “catching up” and “filling the gap”. As the private market stabilises and public housing supply gains momentum, our policy thinking must evolve accordingly. The future demands “precision management”—harnessing data-driven insights to calibrate the rhythm of land creation and guard against boom-and-bust cycles, while simultaneously seizing the strategic window afforded by improved supply to proactively redevelop our ageing estates. Hong Kong's housing policy must undergo a fundamental transformation, moving decisively towards a paradigm of cycle management, quality enhancement, and long-term resilience.”
OHKF Vice President and Executive Director of Public Policy Institute Mr Ryan Ip noted: “The private residential market has firmly entered a recovery phase, reflecting a dual structural shift: the release of pent-up end-user demand and a pronounced pivot in developer behaviour. Notably, developers have transitioned from passive inventory destocking to active, profit-led pricing—a clear signal of restored industry confidence. Yet, the market now faces the compounding pressures of a cyclical supply trough coinciding with strengthening demand drivers. The equilibrium is tightening rapidly. We recommend the authorities establish a forward-looking land supply framework, leveraging data to calibrate the pace of land sales flexibly between supply valleys and demand peaks, thereby safeguarding against sharp market fluctuations.”
OHKF Assistant Research Director and Head of Land and Housing Mr Jason Leung commented: “Public housing development in Hong Kong has made steady progress in recent years, providing greater capacity for efforts in “enhancing quality”. The upcoming supply peak over the next decade will, for the first time, provide Hong Kong with the substantial rehousing resources essential for driving systematic redevelopment. This is a necessary investment to elevate living standards, unlock development potential, and revitalise ageing communities. However, it must be emphasised that this process involves more than just demolition and replacement; it affects the community networks, neighbourly bonds, and life memories built by residents over decades. We must, therefore, place significant importance on the social impacts arising from the redevelopment process, ensuring that renewal plans remain people-centric and proceed in a stable, orderly manner.
Hong Kong Housing Landscape Navigator 2026:
Report Summary: https://bit.ly/4u4nYM0
PowerPoint Material: https://bit.ly/4tqN1Jn
